“There's a
pretty good chance of a modest recovery in oil prices, perhaps in the range of
USD $50 to $55,” said Todd Hirsch, Chief Economist of ATB Financial. “But I
want to emphasize it would be a modest recovery, I don't think $80 is in our
sights this year.”
He was the
guest speaker during the Sturgeon County 2016 State of the County Breakfast on
Mar. 17 in the Morinville Community Cultural Centre. More than 150 business
people, elected officials and residents attended the annual event.
“I see more
pain in the labour market, more rounds of layoffs and rising unemployment in the
late summer and early fall,” Hirsch told the crowd. “I do however, see a good
probability of some modest recovery by the end of this year as optimism and hope
comes back. We can look back on the year and say Hasta La Vista to 2016.”
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| ATB Financial Chief Economist Todd Hirsch |
During his
presentation, Hirsch referred to PowerPoint slides that showed the results of
his research and observations. For example, he predicts 15:1 odds of a Bank of
Canada interest rate hike this year. He foresees 3:1 odds of Alberta
unemployment
reaching eight per cent by the end of 2016. As for the housing market downturn,
Hirsch figures on 7:1 odds of house prices decreasing 20 per cent this year.
As for the
overall economy, the chief economist says the odds are 1:1, which means a 50-50
chance of a rebound in 2016. But Hirsch insists that’s no reason for alarm.
Instead, he urges cautious optimism combined with long-term prudence.
 |
| More than 150 people attended the event. |
“The
sentiments I'm hearing these days in coffee shops and boardrooms that troubles
me is we need to hunker down and get through this year,” said Hirsch. “I
understand what they’re saying, but I think that is the wrong approach.
Hunkering down is what you do when whatever is happening to you is temporary.
Hunkering down is what you do in a tornado or earthquake, because you know in
about 90 seconds the whole thing will be over. What's happening in the Alberta economy
in 2016 is not temporary at all.”
Hirsch ended
his presentation with an inspirational quote from the Calgary Chamber of
Commerce: “We can choose to be the Alberta that doesn’t let the world happen to
us, but the one that takes our destiny in our own hands and acts.” Hirsch
emphasized the importance of keeping a positive attitude despite the seemingly
overwhelming economic challenges this province currently faces.
“I love
this quote because it’s a call to action for every Albertan so they can ask, ‘What
actions are we going to take in 2016 that will help us move forward?’” Hirsch
invited people to monitor his online economic updates at www.atb.com/economics.
Grant Cree is an
Edmonton-based photojournalist focusing on photo and video event coverage to
help clients connect with their audiences. www.grantcree.ca 780-940-3228
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