Economist urges optimism

“There's a pretty good chance of a modest recovery in oil prices, perhaps in the range of USD $50 to $55,” said Todd Hirsch, Chief Economist of ATB Financial. “But I want to emphasize it would be a modest recovery, I don't think $80 is in our sights this year.”

He was the guest speaker during the Sturgeon County 2016 State of the County Breakfast on Mar. 17 in the Morinville Community Cultural Centre. More than 150 business people, elected officials and residents attended the annual event.

“I see more pain in the labour market, more rounds of layoffs and rising unemployment in the late summer and early fall,” Hirsch told the crowd. “I do however, see a good probability of some modest recovery by the end of this year as optimism and hope comes back. We can look back on the year and say Hasta La Vista to 2016.”

ATB Financial Chief Economist Todd Hirsch

During his presentation, Hirsch referred to PowerPoint slides that showed the results of his research and observations. For example, he predicts 15:1 odds of a Bank of Canada interest rate hike this year. He foresees 3:1 odds of Alberta i

unemployment reaching eight per cent by the end of 2016. As for the housing market downturn, Hirsch figures on 7:1 odds of house prices decreasing 20 per cent this year.

As for the overall economy, the chief economist says the odds are 1:1, which means a 50-50 chance of a rebound in 2016. But Hirsch insists that’s no reason for alarm. Instead, he urges cautious optimism combined with long-term prudence.

More than 150 people attended the event.

“The sentiments I'm hearing these days in coffee shops and boardrooms that troubles me is we need to hunker down and get through this year,” said Hirsch. “I understand what they’re saying, but I think that is the wrong approach. Hunkering down is what you do when whatever is happening to you is temporary. Hunkering down is what you do in a tornado or earthquake, because you know in about 90 seconds the whole thing will be over. What's happening in the Alberta economy in 2016 is not temporary at all.”

Hirsch ended his presentation with an inspirational quote from the Calgary Chamber of Commerce: “We can choose to be the Alberta that doesn’t let the world happen to us, but the one that takes our destiny in our own hands and acts.” Hirsch emphasized the importance of keeping a positive attitude despite the seemingly overwhelming economic challenges this province currently faces. 

“I love this quote because it’s a call to action for every Albertan so they can ask, ‘What actions are we going to take in 2016 that will help us move forward?’” Hirsch invited people to monitor his online economic updates at www.atb.com/economics.

Grant Cree is an Edmonton-based photojournalist focusing on photo and video event coverage to help clients connect with their audiences. www.grantcree.ca  780-940-3228